[CPI at 3.2% -- As some economists (and the Biden campaign) eagerly anticipate an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve sometime this year, the Consumer Price Index has ticked up to 3.2% in February, from an annual rate of 3.1% in January, the Labor Department reports. That’s the wrong direction from the Fed’s target 2% rate. The month-over-month increase was 0.4%, with shelter and gas accounting for 60% of the increase. Energy was up 2.3%, while food, and food at home, was unchanged.]
IDES OF MARCH 2024
Fulton County, Georgia – Atlanta Judge Scott McAfee ruled Friday morning that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can remain on the election interference case against Donald J. Trump, but only if her former romantic partner, Nathan Wade, withdraws from the case …
Mar-a-Lagogate – U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon appears to have handed prosecutors in the confidential documents case against Trump a win by ruling against the ex-president’s attorneys’ motion that the Espionage Act behind the indictments are “unconstitutionally vague.” However, Newsweek notes that Trump appointee Cannon instructed his attorneys in the ruling that they should bring up the “unconstitutionally vague” argument in “connection with the jury instruction briefing” …
Hush Money Case – New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg says his office is willing to delay Trump’s hush money case after receiving late evidence from the U.S. attorney’s office, to give defense attorneys sufficient time for review. The trial was scheduled to begin March 25, and may now be delayed by 30 days.
--TL
•••
The Schumer-Netanyahu Split – After Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for new Israeli elections on π day Thursday in frustration over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence on a ceasefire in Gaza, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took to the Senate floor to “remind” Schumer that Israel is not an American colony, calling his remarks “grotesque” and “unprecedented” (per Punchbowl News).
But just as Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition continues to consider Palestinians and their Hamas “leadership” in Gaza one and the same, so too do the staunchest U.S. supporters of Netanyahu refuse to distinguish between the Israeli government and the Jewish people. This despite the fact that even before the vicious, horrible Hamas attack October 7, Netanyahu was long-resistant to a two-state solution with Palestinians in Gaza.
Meanwhile ...
Gaza's health ministry has accused Israel's military of firing on Palestinians awaiting aid in Gaza, killing 20 and injuring 150, The Guardian reports. The Israeli military denies the reports.
Influencing our November election
In trying to save his own power, Netanyahu has helped to throw the November U.S. presidential election to Donald J. Trump, and he knows it. Biden has ceded substantial votes to “uncommitted” in the Michigan and Minnesota Democratic primaries as he tries to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza in vain.
While Biden has known Netanyahu for a very long time, going back to his time in the Senate, Trump and Netanyahu had a closer relationship during the Trump administration – until Netanyahu congratulated Biden for his victory in 2020, which of course led Trump to criticize the Israeli prime minister for his “disloyalty.”
If Netanyahu continues to reject ceasefire in Gaza (it is necessary to note that Hamas has done very little to help, either) the Israeli prime minister might very well be able to make it up to Trump by congratulating him this November.
--Analysis by Todd Lassa
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THURSDAY π Day 2024
Schumer Calls for Israeli Elections -- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), wants Israel to hold new elections, saying its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has "lost his way" (per The Hill). "As a lifelong supporter of Israel, it has become clear to me: The Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel after October 7," Schumer continued. "The world has changed -- radically -- since then, and the Israeli people are being stifled right now by a governing vision that is stuck in the past."
•••
VP to Abortion Clinic -- Vice President Kamala Harris visits a Twin Cities, Minnesota abortion clinic Thursday, Axios reports, a first-ever such appearance by a sitting veep according to the White House.
•••
Meanwhile, in Ft. Pierce, Florida – Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon holds a hearing Thursday morning on two of the ex-president’s requests to dismiss his 40-count federal indictment in Mar-a-Lagogate. Donald J. Trump’s attorneys claim the section of the Espionage Act accusing him of mishandling classified documents and obstructing federal officials’ attempts to get them back to the National Archives Washington is “unconstitutionally vague as applied to President Trump,” The Washington Post reports.
Meanwhile, in Fulton County, Georgia: Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee Wednesday dismissed three of 13 counts against Trump in the election interference case (per WaPo). Prosecutors may refile the charges, however.
•••
Schumer's Watch is Slow – The Senate may take its time in taking up the House bill passed Wednesday, 352-65, that would force ByteDance to sell its U.S. interest in TikTok, or face some sort of blockage or shutdown in the country.
“The Senate will review the legislation when it comes over from the House,” CQ Roll Call quotes Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
This, despite obvious House urgency for the bill sponsored by Select China committee chair Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL).
Not on Warner's watch: From its interview with Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Semafor has a much different take on the upper-chamber's timing on the TikTok bill. "We're going into a 24-hour election cycle, where literally millions of Americans get a lot of their news from this site," said the chairman of the Senate Select committee. "And if that can be manipulated against American interests -- I don't care whether you're Democrat or Republican, that is not in America's interests."
The Trump factor: Politico reports of worry that billionaire Jeff Yass, who has a 15% stake in TikTok, has influenced Trump’s flip-flop on the issue, as he has since objected to removing the social media platform from the nation. Former Trump administration Senior Counselor Kellyanne Conway has signed on with Club for Growth to counter the push to ban TikTok on national security concerns.
Our take: Two things. A.) It’s a notable shift if the Senate, and not the House, takes up Trump’s cause. But after all, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is now a solid Trump backer. B.) If ByteDance is forced to sell TikTok to an American entity or face shutdown, wouldn’t Yass be in the catbird seat to buy up the 85% he doesn’t already own?
--TL
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Tick...Tick...Tick...
WEDNESDAY 3/13/24
Rrrrring -- The House passed HR 7521 Wednesday morning, 352-65, (per The Hill) that would force ByteDance to divest U.S. interest in TikTok within 165 days. That clock doesn't start ticking until the Senate passes the bill. President Biden, whose re-election campaign has used the social media platform to reach young voters, is in favor of the bill and presumably will sign it.
How to Stop a Clock – The House is expected to pass HR 7521 Wednesday, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which would force China’s ByteDance to divest its U.S. interest in TikTok within 165 days over national security concerns, or face shut-down here. This, even though the House needs two-thirds majority to fast-track suspension of rules procedures that the Republican leadership plans to use, Punchbowl News reports, and even though the leader of the GOP, Donald J. Trump, has reversed his position calling for the social media phenomenon’s removal.
TikTok flip-flop: Much has been speculated about Trump’s reversal on TikTok. He proposed a ban in 2020, but more recently said that its shut-down here will give more power to Facebook, which a 2022 “documentary” blames for Trump’s 2020 re-election loss. One theory that sticks out more than most is that billionaire Jeff Yass, who has a “huge financial stake” in ByteDance according to Axios, has invited Trump to a retreat by Club for Growth, a conservative group that also opposes the ban. Yass has previously contributed $4.9 million to Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign.
Bonus social media gossip: Trump last summer asked The World’s Second-Richest Man Elon Musk whether he wanted to buy Truth Social, The Washington Post scoops Wednesday morning, citing two people “with knowledge” of the matter. Musk apparently demurred, but the conversation indicates an even closer relationship between the 91-times indicted ex-president and the owner of X than previously known.
•••
It’s … Trump v. Biden – In sports terms, the 2020 race would be Biden v. Trump, but however you put it, November’s presidential election is a rerun of the last. Ex-President Trump and President Biden both clinched their parties’ nominations Tuesday, winning primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington. In addition, Donald J. Trump took the Hawaii Republican primary (Biden earlier won the state).
Georgia on my mind: Pundits point to Georgia, the state where Trump begged for 11,780 extra votes in ’20. While Biden took 95.2% of the Democratic vote (Marianne Williamson, 3%, Rep. Dean Phillips, 1.8%) Trump took 84.2% of the Republican vote, with 13.2% going to Nikki Haley and 1.3% to Ron DeSantis.
Democrats shouldn’t get too excited, though: Republican voter turnout in Georgia was more than twice that for the Democratic Party.
History: November will mark the seventh time in U.S. history that the two major party candidates will be the same as in the previous election. For those of you who are about to be contestants on Jeopardy! here are the previous six, according to Pew Research:
1952 and 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower v. Adlai Stevenson.
1896 and 1900: William McKinley v. William Jennings Bryan.
1888 and 1892: Grover Cleveland v. Benjamin Harrison.
1836 and 1840: Martin Van Buren v. William Henry Harrison.
1824 and 1828: John Quincy Adams v. Andrew Jackson.
1796 and 1800: John Adams v. Thomas Jefferson.
•••
Not With Hur -- Perhaps it’s a sign of how well Robert K. Hur, special counsel on President Biden’s documents case, did his job that both Democrats and Republicans took shots at him in a congressional hearing Tuesday. Hur argued that he did not “exonerate” Biden in his report, and he defended his questioning of Biden’s memory, according to The Washington Post.
“I did not exonerate him. The word does not appear in the report, congresswoman,” he told Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA).
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) called him “part of the Praetorian Guard” preserving the Washington “swamp.”
Responding to a question by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) on the federal documents case against Donald J. Trump; “Sir, I’m not here to express any opinion with respect to a pending case against another defendant.”
You can read Hur's full report for the U.S. Department of Justice here.
--TL
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TUESDAY 3/12/24
Buck Out -- Rep. Ken Buck (D-CO) said last year he would not run for rr-election this November. On Tuesday, he told reporters he can't wait that long to leave.
"This place just keeps going down, and I don't want to spend my time here," Buck said (per The Hill). The 65-year-old congressman often breaks from his party on various issues, and has criticized Trumpian election denial. With his unexpected early departure, the GOP now has 218 members to 213 House Democrats.
•••
Tuesday’s Primaries – Georgia is the big one for both Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald J. Trump. There are also primaries in Mississippi, Washington and the Northern Mariana Islands, with Hawaii holding GOP caucuses, per U.S. News & World Report. The organization Democrats Abroad also hosts a primary.
•••
Biden Budget v. House GOP – The Biden administration proposes a $7.3 trillion budget for fiscal year 2025, up 4.7% from this year, but with tax raises on corporations and the wealthiest Americans to cut the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade (per USA Today). The proposal would restore the child tax credit from the American Rescue Plan, launch a program for affordable, high-quality childcare available from birth to kindergarten and provide new mortgage relief for home buyers.
The White House’s budget is a wish list that will get lots of attention by both the Biden campaign and the Trump campaign between now and November (as Congress likely extends this fiscal year’s budget past its September 30 end), as will an alternate proposal just passed by the GOP-led House Budget Committee, according to the Huffpost. That “budget blueprint” for 2025 would shrink the deficit by $14 trillion over the next decade while extending the Trump tax cuts, which expire next year. HuffPost says “vulnerable” congressional Republicans are balking at taking a full House vote on what would be the first such Republican alt-budget to hit the floor since 2014.
--TL
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MONDAY 3/11/24
Orban Explains All -- Fresh back in Budapest from his visit to Mar-a-Lago, Hungary's authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, explained how Donald J. Trump will end the war in Ukraine if he is returned to the White House.
"He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russian war," Orban told Hungary's M1 TV channel, according to the BBC. "That is why the war will end. ... If the Americans don't give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, then this war is over. And if the Americans don't give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over."
We have been warned.
•••
Sweden became NATO's 31st member nation Monday morning, NPR reports, after decades resisting joining the Western military alliance. Sweden and Finland applied for membership in May 2022. Finland joined last year, but Sweden had faced opposition from Turkey and Hungary.
•••
Trump Mocks Biden’s Stutter – After generally favorable reviews of his State of the Union address last Thursday for its display of the president’s energy if nothing else, Joe Biden’s stutter has become the subject of Donald J. Trump’s ridicule beginning with a rally in Georgia Sunday. Trump infamously mocked a New York Times reporter for his upper-body disability back in 2015, but this is his first such attack on Biden’s lifelong speech impediment.
What stands out about this to John Hendrickson, himself a stutterer, writes in The Atlantic is, “the sound of Trump’s supporters laughing right along with him. This is a building block of Trumpism. The man at the top gives his followers to be the worst version of themselves.”
•••
Oscar Speech – Mystyslav Chernov, one of three filmmakers of 20 Days in Mariupol to win the Academy Award for Documentary Feature Film Sunday night said in his acceptance speech he wishes he could exchange his Oscar statue for “Russia never Invading Ukraine.” At last year’s Academy Award ceremony Navalny took home the Oscar for the same category. Its subject, Aleksei Navalny, who died under suspicious circumstances at a Russian prison last month, led the Oscar broadcast “death reel.”
Pope chimes in on Ukraine: Pope Francis "sparked anger" last weekend after he said Ukraine should have the "courage of the white flag" and negotiate the end of the war with Russia, CNN reports. On X, Business Ukraine magazine responded with the post that the Pope "might want to consider the famous words of South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu on, "neutrality"; "If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality."
•••
ICYMI – After all the hand wringing and folderol about the current fiscal year budget, its can having been kicked by continuing resolutions several times since last October, the Senate passed a $460 billion bill, 75-22 last Friday to avert a partial government shutdown (per The New York Times). Congress now has to March 22 to pass the other half of the federal budget. On Monday, President Biden unveiled his federal budget proposal for the coming fiscal year, which begins October 1.
•••
Up on the Hill – Both the full House and the full Senate are in session Monday through Wednesday. The Senate only is in session Thursday.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa