HOLD STEADY FED: The Federal Reserve will cut its interest rate, but not yet. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated there will be three cuts later this year. “Inflation is still too high,” Powell said Wednesday. “Ongoing progress on bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is still uncertain.” For now, the Federal Open Market Committee “will keep the interest rate unchanged and continue to reduce our security holdings,” Powell said.
Terrorist Attack on Moscow -- Two to five gunmen attacked a concert hall outside Russia's capitol late Friday, with at least 40 dead and more than 100 injured, NPR reports. Fire has broken out in the hall with some attending a concert by the group Piknik trapped in the building. Kyiv is denying claims by some Russian officials of any complicity. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with the shooting in Crocus City Hall," an aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement. "It make no sense whatsoever." Kyiv Post has photos and video here.
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Sacrificial Speaker? -- After the House passed the 1,012-page, $1.2-trillion omnibus spending bill, 286-134 Friday afternoon, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). At least he got as far as funding the federal government through September 30, though there is still no future aid for Ukraine's defense against Russia.
"This will be the fall of Mike Johnson for allowing this bill to happen and not fighting for and defending our southern border," MTG said Friday on Steve Bannon's War Room show (per CQ Roll Call).
In passage of the omnibus, 101 Republicans and all but 22 House Democrats voted for the bill, Roll Call reports, leaving the Senate scrambling to hold its vote before that part of the budget expires at midnight.
Majority minus one more: Meanwhile, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced he will resign from Congress on April 19, says Roll Call, leaving the GOP with just 217 House members, a one-seat margin over Democrats. The four-term congressman, who as chair of the Select Committee on China co-sponsored the bipartisan bill calling on ByteDance to sell or close down TikTok in the U.S., made his announcement on Rep. Ken Block's (R-CO) last day. While California and Ohio will hold special elections to replace their early House retirements later this year, and New York next month will hold a special election to replace ousted Republican Rep. George Santos (the GOP is expected to lose the seat), Wisconsin law leaves Gallagher's seat unfilled until the November 5 election.
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UPDATE -- Shareholders of a shell corporation have agreed to buy Donald J. Trump's Truth Social, The Guardian reports. Now it's up to Trump to work a deal to free $454 million to pay his fine in the New York civil fraud case, by Monday.
Trump Payday Friday? – Shareholders of Digital World Acquisition Corp. will vote Friday on whether the shell company should acquire Donald J. Trump’s Truth Social and launch an initial public offering as early as next week and raise sufficient cash for the former president to pay his $454 million fine for his New York civil fraud case, NPR’s Morning Edition reports. Though apparently inspired by Reddit’s IPO this week, the “backdoor listing,” a much different sort of public offering. It would bring in an estimated $3 billion for Trump, who would be required to hold on to his share of more than 50% for at least six months. The stock listing would be “DJT.” Trump could potentially make a “side deal” to loosen enough cash to pay his fine by Monday, and we’ll go out on a limb here and say that you can count on that.
Truth Social earned just $3 million in the first nine months of 2023, according to the report, and lost nearly $50 million.
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Cease-fire Efforts – The U.S. is expected to introduce a resolution before the United Nations late Friday calling for “an immediate and sustained cease-fire” in the Israeli-Hamas war, The New York Times reports, after Secretary of State Antony Blinken travelled to Tel Aviv to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from invading Rafah. Meanwhile, CIA Director William J. Burns met with mediators in Qatar in an endeavor to broker that elusive ceasefire.
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‘Round Midnight – Here’s what must happen to a $1.24 trillion spending package before midnight Friday if a partial government shutdown is to be avoided, according to The Washington Post: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) must try to suspend House rules requiring two-thirds vote to pass the omnibus package there and avoid blockage from the MAGA Freedom Caucus. If Johnson can pull that off early Friday, he’ll need “substantial” support from House Democrats. Then, the Senate must “hastily engineer” a full vote before midnight and schlep the bill to the White House, where President Biden will surely sign it.
If Congress can’t meet the midnight deadline but can manage to pull themselves together before Monday, effects of a partial shutdown could be “minimal,” according to WaPo.
--TL
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THURSDAY 3/21/24
Plugging In – The Environmental Protection Agency called for 30% to 56% of new cars and light trucks to be battery-electric vehicles by model years 2030-32, in its final ruling on new emissions standards issued Wednesday. While this is by far the strictest clampdown on greenhouse gas emissions ever by the federal government, subject to a quick reversal if Donald J. Trump wins the November election, it is an easing of the Biden EPA’s initial proposal issued last April.
That standard would have mandated about two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the U.S. be BEVs by 2032. This adjusted standard, which becomes law when it is published in the Federal Register allows automakers to tackle the “zero-emissions” mandate with a combination of BEVs, which they have coming in bigger numbers by the end of the decade anyway, and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which have become more popular as EV demand has leveled a bit. The ramp-up between model years 2027 and 2030 also is not as steep. Easing of the standard without giving in to Big Oil has the support of automakers and of the United Auto Workers, whose president, Shawn Fain, endorsed President Biden in January.
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WEDNESDAY 3/20/24
Restrict Aid to Israel? – As Israeli troops prepare to invade Rafah in an effort to root out four Hamas battalions, some House Democrats is considering restricting military aid to Israel if it fails to protect Palestinian civilians in the offensive.
“We have existing restrictions and laws that say those to whom we give financial support must use them in accordance with international law,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a close ally of President Biden, told NPR’s Steve Inskeep Wednesday on Morning Edition.
Israeli military officials were on their way to the Pentagon Wednesday to meet with U.S. officials. Coons said that Israel has the right and responsibility to protect and defend its citizens against Hamas, which still has four battalions in Rafah, but “we have to balance that need with the obligation to protect civilians and facilitate humanitarian aid going into Gaza.”
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DeLuxe Tuesday – Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno won Ohio’s Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate Tuesday, beating Frank LaRose and moderate Matt Dolan, who was endorsed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, after “some Democrat meddling” by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), per Semafor. Brown is himself a moderate who would rather run for re-election against the Maga-iest of GOP challengers. This is considered the biggest race for November 5 aside from Trump v. Biden.
President Biden won Tuesday’s five primary states with at least 83% of the vote and Donald J. Trump had at least 75% of the vote, according to The New York Times.
Arizona: Though out of the race, Nikki Haley grabbed 18.7%, her best showing Tuesday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis got 1.6% in the GOP presidential race, leaving Trump with 77.9%.
Ohio: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who has dropped out of the Democratic race for president and has since endorsed Biden, got 13% of the vote here (NYT).
Kansas: More than 10% of Democratic primary voters chose “none of the names.”
Meanwhile, in California: No candidate reached the 50% threshold for an overall win to take former Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s seat Tuesday, though Republican state Assemblyman Vince Fong notches the primary win. The race for second was too close to call Wednesday morning. Fong will face either Republican Tulane County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux or teacher and Democrat Marisa Wood (NYT) November 5.
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Texas Law Blocked Again – Some five hours after the U.S. Supreme Court allowed temporary application of Texas SB 4 while it makes its way through the judicial system, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth District blocked it, The Washington Post reports. SB 4 would give Texas officials the authority to deport immigrants caught crossing the border. The Mexican government has said it would not accept anyone sent back by Texas. Critics of SB 4 say it would encourage separation of families and spur racial profiling.
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I’ve Got an Omnibus Bill and I Want Funding Now – Lawmakers want the six-bill omnibus agreed upon by House and Senate leaders in both parties to come to the floor by Wednesday, but it is not likely to happen until Thursday, Punchbowl News. That means a partial government shutdown as Congress puts in some hours this weekend.
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TUESDAY 3/19/24
We Have a FY24 Budget – Almost. White House officials and the four congressional leaders reached a deal on Homeland Security funding Monday to finish off the budget for the current fiscal year. An omnibus bill to make its way through Congress and on to President Biden’s desk includes the remaining spending bills, for Defense, Labor-HHS, the Legislative Branch, Financial Services-General Government, and State Department-Foreign Operations, according to Punchbowl News.
So the federal government will be funded right on up to September 30, when kick-the-can begins all over again. Except … CQ Roll Call notes that the voting process on these spending bills could go into the weekend, after their Friday deadline, and create a short shutdown before Biden can apply his John Hancock.
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What’s That Golden Escalator Worth? – A court filling Monday by Donald J. Trump’s attorneys says the former president was unable to secure an appeal bond to cover his $454 million judgment in a civil fraud case, after “diligent efforts” to approach about 30 bond companies, The New York Times reports. As of Tuesday, Trump has six days to raise the cash before the New York attorney general could seize his New York properties and freeze his bank accounts.
Trump will still have Mar-a-Lago. He assured the court during the civil trial he has the liquidity to pay the fine, but that statement now appears to be as questionable as the valuation of his New York properties over the years, which is what got him into this pickle in the first place. Perhaps a second production run of golden tennis shoes?
Trump did manage to post $91.6 million for E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case this month at “the eleventh hour,” with the money coming from a large insurance company, the NYT says.
‘Out of his control’… “He is really angry right now,” former Trump personal attorney/fixer Michael Cohen told CNN’s Kaitlyn Collins on The Source. “That’s what happens when Donald gets frustrated; he gets angry. When there’s a situation that is completely out of his control. And we do know that it is out of his control.”
While Trump appears to have the upper hand delaying his criminal cases, including Mar-a-Lagogate, the federal January 6thinsurrection case and the Fulton County election interference case, this civil case -- which could break up the former president’s real estate holdings -- arguably is his greatest fear.
Speaking of, uh, banks…Donald J. Trump is considering hiring his 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort, for a role in this year’s campaign – possibly in charge of fundraising, The Washington Post reports. During his administration, Trump pardoned Manafort for bank and tax fraud convictions, so at least he has some experience in this area. Manafort was also accused of hiding millions of dollars he made consulting for pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians.
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Censuring Socials? – A majority of Supreme Court justices appeared to back the Biden administration’s argument that the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals went too far in blocking the White House, FBI, CDC and other federal agencies from asking social media outlets from removing certain content -- including “erroneous information” about COVID-19, foreign interference into elections or such election information as where to find a polling place -- for violating the First Amendment, NPR’s Nina Totenberg reported on All Things Considered.
“I’ve experienced government press people throughout the federal government who regularly call up the media and berate them,” Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a Trump appointee, said.
“Like Justice Kavanaugh, I’ve had some experience encouraging press to suppress their own speech,” said Justice Elena Kagan, an Obama appointee. “’You just wrote a story that’s filled with factual errors. Here are the 10 reasons you shouldn’t do that again.’ This happens literally thousands of times per day in the federal government.”
A government official contacting social media companies even to encourage suppression amounts to unconstitutional pressure, Louisiana Solicitor Gen. Benjamin Aguinaga countered.
“Just plain vanilla encouragement, or does it have to be significant encouragement?” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said in response to Aguinaga. “Because encouragement would sweep in an awful lot.”
Aguinaga had no clear response for this, Totenberg reported.
--TL
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MONDAY 3/18/24
Putin 'Wins' Again -- Vladimir Putin grabbed another six-year term for president of Russia with 87.3% of the vote, Politico reports, though not without protests urged by the late dissident leader Alexei Navalny.
Long lines of Russians formed Sunday, the third and final day of voting, in such cities as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Tomsk and Novosibirsk, to vote against the dictator, in support of Navalny’s call for “Noon Against Putin” demonstrations, The Washington Post reports.
Navalny died in prison last month. His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, wrote in her late husband’s name on her ballot at the Russian embassy in Berlin, where she voted, according to the BBC.
Putin’s campaign included promises of new homes and cars for Russians who voted for him (per NPR’s All Things Considered Weekend). As of late Sunday, 50% of the vote had been counted. Putin had three challengers, none of whom criticized him (which means they probably are still alive and not in jail).
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Trump’s Latest Rally – It was in Vandalia, Ohio, where Donald J. Trump, who on Super Tuesday clinched the GOP presidential nomination for a third time, repeated demonstrably scary language about what will happen if he does not “win” the November election.
“Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath. That’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country,” Trump (who again claimed he defeated Barrack Obama in 2016) said, per The Guardian,
Many news outlets note that Trump was referring to the domestic auto industry, which has several factories in Ohio and which the former president said he would protect with a 100% tariff on import vehicles, according to NPR. Domestic auto factories and their workers would suffer the “bloodbath,” according to this excuse. Both Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) on NBC’s Meet the Press and ex-Vice President Mike Pence on CBS’ Face the Nation gave Trump that “gimme” Sunday.
Trump also said this, according to The Guardian’s report: “I don’t think you’re going to have another election in this country, if we don’t win this election … Certainly not an election that’s meaningful.”
Biden spokesman James Singer said, “He wants another January 6th, but the American people are going to give him another election defeat this November because they continue to reject his extremism, his affection for violence, and his thirst for revenge.”
In Ohio, Trump repeated his claim that foreign countries are “emptying” prisons and mental institutions into the U.S. and called some immigrants “animals.”
“I don’t know if you call them ‘people.’ They’re not ‘people’, in my opinion. But I’m not allowed to say that because the radical left say that’s a terrible thing to say.”
Clearly, at his own rallies at least, Trump has been given permission to say such things.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa