Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

When the war in Iran began in late February, there were 415 million barrels of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, as of October 16, 2026, there are 282.7 million barrels of crude in the reserve.

That’s a reduction of 41.49%.

Donald Trump likes to boast about “the biggest” and “the most” and “the greatest.”

And he would be correct, for a change, were he to claim that he has caused the greatest draw-down in the reserve by percentage in history.

MAGA!

Trump, who claims he is a big supporter of the US auto industry. (“We didn’t build a car plant for 44 years in this country. Now we’re building more car plants than we ever have in history,” he said. Now it so happens that in March 2025 Hyundai opened a massive assembly plant in Georgia — which he probably takes credit for, but shouldn’t, as ground was broken for the plant in 2022, under the Biden Administration. And how can he forget his buddy Elon, who opened Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas in 2022? I’m not a mathematician, but that’s not 44 years ago.)

The traditional US auto industry is still based in Southeastern Michigan. Cars, trucks and SUVs, unless they are part of what Trump described as the “Green New Scam” (i.e., electric), operate on gasoline or diesel fuel.

According to AAA (the day this is being written, not some cherry-picked date), the average price of a gallon of regular in Michigan is $4.83. A year ago the average price was $3.10 per gallon.

If that $3.10 grew at the annual inflation rate — 3.74% according to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee — it would cost $3.22.

Yet here are those people in the auto industry in Michigan paying not $3.22 but 50% more than $3.22.

Although Michigan is associated with autos, agriculture is an important aspect of the state economy. Michigan has the second-most diverse ag industry of all US states, following California — which happens to be 69% bigger by land area, so it should have more diversity.

Ag equipment — tractors, harvesters and the like — run on diesel fuel.

Again, on October 24 the price of a gallon of diesel in Michigan was $6.68, up from $3.65 a year ago. A rise of more than $3.00 per gallon.

Farms operate on razor-thin margins. How does that diesel price affect that?

That’s not all. According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture, in the last year the price of fertilizer has increased 15.3% over the past year, a rise contributed to by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Whether it is the auto worker or the farmer, Trump is not doing much for Michigan besides costing them more money. 

And a similar case can undoubtedly be made for the other states. Turning to The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University, its “Iran War Energy Cost Tracker” has it that in terms of just gasoline and diesel each household in the US has paid an additional $1,091.18 since the start of the war in Iran.

That’s money that’s not coming back.

President Trump has repeatedly said that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon.

No one (outside the Iranian administration, of course) would disagree with that.

So he travels around the country, ostensibly campaigning for Republican candidates. 

And the “no nuclear weapon” trope gets repeated.

After Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 Trump said the Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.”

Eight months later the Iranian war began.

Perhaps that obliteration was exaggerated.

Be that as it may, the US kinetic military activities in Iran have been wound down for several months. Operation Epic Fury ended on May 5, 2026. There have been some bursts of activities since then, and Trump keeps threatening to mount new attacks.

Evidently that nuclear weapon-making capability has once again been obliterated. And then what?

There have been 24 weeks since May 5 and today.

And what has the man who claims to be a magnificent dealmaker done during this period?

Everyone who buys gas and groceries knows: Nothing.

Soon his schtick won’t stick.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.