Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

Kevin Hassett isn’t a cup-half-full kind of guy.

Rather, he is an if-Trump-has-anything-to-do-with-it-it-is-a-Big-Gulp-cup-and-it-is-overflowing-with-goodness kind of guy.

On Fox News Sunday August 9, Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, Trump’s inside economics advisor, told host Shannon Bream, “Wage growth is through the roof, especially for blue collar workers.”

Sure, he admitted earlier in the program that not all is going well.

But certainly not because of anything the Trump administration has or hasn’t done: “The prices went up so much under Joe Biden we totally understand why people are still frustrated when they go to the grocery store.”

Yes, the specter of Joe Biden still haunts the country.

Still, that roof-busting wage increase claim is intriguing.

So, I checked the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which charts wage growth.

Presumably the “blue collar” jobs are found under the “Manufacturing” category.

The bank has figures that are updated month by month.

Let’s go back to the Biden years, starting with February 2021, as that would be the first that one could conceivably argue he began to “own” the economy. (Unless Trump is proclaiming how great the economy is, he blames Biden for the state of affairs, even though he’s “owned” the economy since February 2025.)

Here are the Manufacturing wage growth figures for the Biden Era, starting in February 2021 and ending in January 2025. (You can just glance over them: There will be no test.)

3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.4, 3.7, 3.8, 4.1, 4.3, 4.7, 5.1, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.6, 6.6, 6.6, 6.9, 6.8, 6.7, 6.7, 6.1, 6.0, 6.0, 5.9, 5.8, 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 5.2, 5.0, 5.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.0, 4.9, 4.8, 4.7, 4.5, 4.7, 4.7,

Now we’ll look at the Trump Economy numbers, running from February 2025 to June 2026: 4.5, 4.4, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.4, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2

It doesn’t take a mathematician to see there is nothing on that second run of numbers that is greater than 4.5. There were 27 months during the Biden years when the number for manufacturing workers was 5.0 or above.

Then that claim about all of those factories that are being built, factories that will, in Hassett’s estimation, unleash even more of the power of the Trump Economy.

According to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), a pro-manufacturing trade organization, in May 2026 there was $174.8 billion being spent on manufacturing construction.

Not too shabby, right?

Well, also according to NAM, in June 2024, yes, during the Biden administration, $240.1 billion was being spent on manufacturing construction.

Oh, what’s $65.3 billion when you’re advising the President about economic policies?

And then let’s look at what NAM members cite as their “Biggest challenges” during Q2 2026:

• 83.1% -- Increased raw materials costs. (Hmm. . .might the tariffs have something to do with that?)
• 71.8% -- Trade uncertainties -- e.g., actual or proposed tariffs, trade negotiation uncertainty. (When changes are just a Truth Social post away, how can anyone be confident of anything?)
• 70% -- Rising healthcare/insurance costs. (Notice how the administration has

     done little in the way to address issues while being more concerned about

     things like the state of décor in the Oval Office?)

One more data point about the state of manufacturing, which is not all that Hassert purports it is.

There is the Manufacturers’ Outlook Index, NAM’s chart of the relative level of optimism of its members.

• Q2 2021, the first full quarter of Biden: 60.48.
• Q2 2025, the first full quarter of Trump: 36.75.

A higher number is better.

“Oh,” you think, “that’s just all the past. How are things looking now?”

• Q2 2026: 49.85

“Ha! You see? A few quarters and Trump is bringing it back.”

But to be comparable in terms of time spent in office:

• Q2 2022: 55.31

Down from that high point earlier, but Biden’s number is 11% higher than Trump’s.

Do you think Hassert knows? Do you think he’d tell Trump if he does?

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings, where he writes primarily for the right column.