Commentary by Stephen Macaulay
Republican Rep. Lisa McClain represents the 9th Congressional District in Michigan, located in the “thumb” of the state. Her district includes farmers who grow products including sugar beets, dry beans, wheat and soybeans; there is plenty of dairy farming in the area, as well.
On an appearance on the September 9, 2026, Face the Nation, McClain, chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, was asked about the Republican National Committee’s Dallas midterm convention and the messaging about Donald Trump — who wants people to think that he’s on the ballot — when his polling numbers are so abysmal.
McClain started her answer by taking a shot at the “crazy Communists” who are on the Democrat side, showing her lack of a grasp of ideology, then cited three things that Trump is doing to help farmers.
These include taking on Canada, making “deals” with countries to buy ag products, and the elimination of the federal “death tax” on farmers.
Let’s start with the last first. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act does create an estate tax exemption of $15 million per individual and $30 million for married couples. So that should keep farms within families, should that be desired.
Or maybe the next generation will not be all that chuffed with the notion of continuing to work the land.
Why?
Well, there’s this from the USDA Economic Research Service, data which is current as of September 3, 2026: “Total farm sector debt is forecast to increase in 2026 relative to 2025 with increases forecast for both real estate and non-real estate debt. Farm real estate debt is expected to reach $399.0 billion in 2026, a 4.6-percent increase in nominal dollars (a 1.6-percent increase in inflation-adjusted dollars). Farm non-real estate debt is expected to reach $206.1 billion in 2026, a 4.4-percent increase in nominal terms (a 1.4-percent increase in inflation-adjusted dollars).”
So what happens in situations where there is a lot of debt piling on top of more debt?
Again, the USDA: “Farm sector solvency is forecast to worsen in 2026 relative to 2025, with debt forecast to grow at a faster rate than assets or equity.”
And in case someone doesn’t quite follow, it adds:
“Solvency measures the ability of a farm or ranch operation to satisfy its debt obligations when due.”
Paying those fertilizer and feed bills isn’t getting any easier.
Let’s move on to those “deals.”
Well, consider that prior to “Liberation Day” China was typically the biggest market for US agricultural products.
Again, according to the USDA, in 2024 China imported $27 billion worth of US ag products and in 2025. . .$8.4 billion.
While there is improvement in the amount as a result a trade agreement signed in May, it is anticipated that if all goes as planned (by the US; China may have other ideas, especially if the Trump Administration follows through on its “Operation Economic Outcast” and applies sanctions on China for the Iranian oil it buys), the ag trade with China will finish 2026 at $21.5 billion.
The other two biggest export market for US agricultural products are Mexico and, yes, Canada.
Given Trump’s dismissive approach to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — a trade deal that he negotiated during his first term — things are a bit wobbly vis-à-vis Mexico and off the rails in terms of Canada.
One of the points that McClain said about trade with Canada sounds crazy but it true: There are some tariffs that are as high as 315.5%.
How did this happen?
Well, it was written into the. . .USMCA. Yes, the very same thing Trump described as the “fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law"
Basically, these are what is known as “tariff rate quotas.” There is a certain amount that goes into the country with no tariffs and then once it gets above those levels the tariffs kick in.
In an article in Farm Progress, “The Real Story Behind Canada’s 250% Dairy Tariffs” by Andy Castillo, there’s this: “US dairy farmers export around 17% of domestic production (about $8 billion in total exports) to more than 140 countries globally, with a significant amount going to Canada ($1 billion). If Trump’s threatened tariffs take hold or Canadians boycott US-made products, causing the dairy market to dry up, American farmers will have to ship their Canada-bound product elsewhere at a ‘huge cost,’ Rasdall Vargas [senior vice president of trade and workforce policy at the International Dairy Foods Association] says.”
That was published on March 15, 2025, long before Trump said of Canada, “We don’t need them.”
And then there’s this, a statement from American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall after Trump signed Presidential Proclamation 11059 on August 26 to increase the amount of beef imports to the US by 300,000 metric tons: “One of the few bright spots for US agriculture right now – the cattle sector – just became dimmer because of today’s presidential proclamation. The timing of this proclamation is a gut punch to ranchers’ bottom line. The claim of ensuring these added imports do not ‘disrupt the orderly marketing of commodities in the US’ falls flat when ranchers are now selling their cattle into a market in sharp decline.”
Trump’s performance in relation to the farmers of America seems underwhelming.
To be fair to Lisa McClain, he’s dealing the cards she has to play. But at some point, he won’t have all the cards.
Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings, where he writes primarily for the right (conservative) column.