Commentary by Stephen Macaulay
By the time you read this, the war in Iran may be over. President Trump said it would be, though as this is being written mid-afternoon Eastern Daylight Time on June 14 and that means it is evening in Iraq, odds are it won’t be, at least not today.
Trump has repeatedly said over the past several weeks about how a “deal” was imminent. While these unfounded claims certainly diminished his veracity, even, perhaps, among those who still gave whatever he said lots of viability, it did have a positive effect causing slight downward movements on the price of oil, as some people figured the flow through the Strait of Hormuz would resume. It didn’t.
Funny thing about that.
More than one elected official who is hoping that saying nice things about Donald Trump will help them keep their jobs come November has said that it will be “a win” for the president if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Does it occur to this elected official that prior to Operation Epic Fury the Strait of Hormuz was open; that the US Strategic Oil Reserve had a nice supply of 415-million barrels in it, and is now at about 349 million, the lowest level in more than 40 years; that gasoline was 39% cheaper and jet fuel 43% cheaper, both of which have an impact on their constituents’ vocations and avocations?
Yes, that will be quite a “win.”
Then there’s things like this, from Senator James Lankford (R-OK) on Meet the Press June 14: “I think people forget Iran has been at war with the United States for 47 years. What President Trump is trying to do is to be able to end Iran’s constant attack of Americans, and American assets and American allies in that region and come and get us. So, to get an end to that is very, very significant. We have military bases all in that region because Iran is constantly attacking us.”
Now if we use his logic that Iran “has been at war” with us for 47 years and that consequently the US has built military bases in that region, the US has been at war with Iran for 47 years.
Perhaps now it is more kinetic.
But here’s the thing: just as it seems no one in the administration had figured the Strait of Hormuz would be seized by the Iranians, has anyone thought about the ramifications of President Trump’s posts like “a whole civilization will die tonight” or Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s quote on the White House website on April 8, “Iran begged for this ceasefire — and we all know it” on the Iranian people, especially the younger cohort who have seen the bombs come raining down and the structures and people being blown up?
Perhaps the deal will be reached so that the Iranian “nuclear dust” will be no longer a threat and there will be a pledge by the Iranian leadership that there will be no nuclear weapons now or in the future.
That is a good thing.
But it doesn’t take a nuclear weapon to wreak havoc. Remember there were 19 terrorists with box cutters on 9/11/2001 that took 2,977 souls and cost trillions of dollars to the US economy.
Back in April 2005 the first US Director of National Intelligence was appointed as a result of a recommendation in the “9/11 Commission Report.” The reason for the DNI was to coordinate efforts among the US intelligence agencies to prevent something like 9/11 from happening again.
When President Trump had appointed Bill Pulte to be the temporary acting DNI earlier this month he said he wanted Pulte “to execute the immediate and needed downsizing” of the office of the Director of National Intelligence.
That’s right: the organization that was established to keep the homeland safe — and which has done an excellent job since 2005 — is now to get the DOGE treatment.
Who could imagine that something bad could be the result of the US decreasing its intelligence capabilities — especially in a time when the Administration has done its damnedest to alienate many of our allies who once shared intelligence with us?
Probably not the people who didn’t see the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.