The month-over-month inflation rate for February was 0.3%, the Labor Department reports, for an annual Consumer Price Index of 2.4%, unchanged from January’s number. Largest factor was for shelter, up 0.2%, with food up 0.4% and energy up 0.6%. All this came as the US and Israel launched an air attack on Iran on the last day of February. [CHART: Bureau of Labor Statistics]
•Pundit-at-Large Stephen Macaulay’s ‘Ukraine v. Iran II’ in the right column is a response to our analysis, ‘Ukraine v. Iran’ in The Gray Area.
WEDNESDAY 3/11/26
Mines in the Strait – The New York Times Tuesday evening quotes a US Central Command social media post that says it struck 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz. A video with the CentCom post showed munitions hitting nine vessels, most of them while moored, according to the report.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon reports 140 American service members have been wounded, eight of them severely (NYT again). There have been eight American military personnel killed.
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Backup Oil – Yes, the price of oil will come down someday. Maybe soon, if as President Trump says, the war is just about over. Maybe much later. In any case, the International Energy Agency is taking no chances and has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history, The Wall Street Journal reports in an exclusive. The IEA released 182 million barrels during the COVID pandemic in 2022, so whatever the number, it will be higher than that.
If this IEA scheme works, it should tamp down oil price spikes from a choked off Strait of Hormuz.
IEA member countries were expected to decide Wednesday on whether to release the reserves, the WSJ reports.
About that timing … If the IEA puts its money on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s take on the war’s expected timeline, it will want to release those reserves tout de suite. Trump and Bibi are not on the same page, according to another Wall Street Journal report.
Whereas Trump told a reporter Monday the military campaign was “very complete, pretty much,” Netanyahu says, “Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny, it is up to them. There is no doubt that through the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones and we are still active.” –TL
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TUESDAY 3/10/26
Unrelenting – Tuesday marks the start of the “most intense day” of American strikes against Iran since the war began February 28, War/Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a press conference, (per The New York Times). “The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes.”
“We will not relent” until Iran is defeated, Hegseth said (per The Wall Street Journal).
Needs definition … What constitutes Iran’s “defeat” is hard to pin down. As is whether this is “war.”
Phone calls … to CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Weijia Jiang: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
These remarks came as Wall Street was in freefall as oil hit nearly $120 a barrel. After Jiang reported the call, oil fell to approximately $92 per barrel and stocks rallied out of the red.
In a call to CNN’s Dana Bash, Trump said Cuba may be next.
“Cuba is going to fall pretty soon, by the way, unrelated, but Cuba is gonna fall too.”
Trump’s comment seems to hint that the US is ready to move on from Iran to the next thing.
Then came this … The war against Iran is actually a “little excursion” that could be wrapped up “soon,” President Trump said Monday evening in his first press conference since the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran February 28, at his golf resort in Doral, Florida, where House Republicans were holding a retreat, CQ Roll Call reports.
When pressed on the war’s end, Trump said that would come “where they’re not going to be starting the following day to develop a nuclear weapon.” (per NPR’s All Things Considered).
Which is it? Jiang asked Trump at the presser. Is the war nearly over or not?
“Both,” Trump replied (per Mediaite).
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Tomahawk Strikes School – The War/Defense Department is continuing its investigation of a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school in Southern Iran in which 168 children and 14 teachers were killed, according to an official Iranian statement.
“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was Iran,” President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
But a CNN investigation of the strike “appears to contradict Trump’s claim” it was done by Iran. Military experts say neither Israel nor Iran use Tomahawks, Isobel Yeong reports on Erin Burnett Out Front. The deadly attack on the school occurred simultaneously with a US Tomahawk strike on a Revolutionary Guard base adjacent to the school.
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Tuesday’s Fuel Prices – National average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas is $3.539, AAA says. While that’s up 33.2 cents over a week earlier, it’s a 55.7-cent hike over the AAA average for February 27, the day before US-Israeli air strikes on Iran. Diesel fuel averages $5.055 per gallon, AAA says. –TL
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MONDAY 3/9/26
Same as the Old Ayatollah – Iran has named the late Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to be its new supreme leader, according to The New York Times, citing clerics’ statements in the country’s state media. Unlike his father, who was killed in the initial US-Israeli air attacks on Tehran a week ago Saturday Khamenei the younger’s tenure is not expected to last 37 years.
In fact, 37 days might be a stretch for 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei. He is not the regime change the US and Israel wanted.
Israel said Monday it was attacking Beirut and Tehran as Iran attacks Israel. US-Israeli strikes on oil facilities have been so intense that oil has been falling on Tehran like drops of rain, according to The Times of Israel.
Pricey rain … Oil prices topped $100 per barrel Sunday, per The Guardian, for the first time since 2022. National average in the US for a gallon of unleaded regular was up 66 cents over a week ago, according to the AAA.
Expensive gas is a small price to pay for “safety and peace,” President Trump said over the weekend, as he tried to reassure America the high prices will last “for weeks … not months,” The Independent (UK) reports.
But for how long? … Michael Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, says his country is counting on minorities in Iran to rise up, take over and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Speaking to Margaret Brennan on CBS News Face the Nation, Leiter said Iran’s inability to keep its counterattacks inside its own borders is a sign its leaders are flailing.
“The fact that they are lashing out irrationally to any of their neighbors and firing these ballistic missiles into all of their neighbors, some 12 countries, into Europe for crying out loud, is indicative of the fact they’re having huge problems,” Leiter told Brennan. “We’re having success in these attacks on their command centers.”
But according to scoopage from The Wall Street Journal, neighbors in the region and even parts of Europe, for crying out loud, is exactly what Iran has been aiming at. Tehran’s leaders decided after last year’s 12-day war with Israel and the US they needed to change their strategy to a high-risk, aggressive plan to escalate conflicts across the region and allow its military to keep the battle going even if top commanders were killed.
In an address to Israel over the weekend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps laid down its arms they would be spared US-Israeli wrath, but if not, they would have blood on their hands.
Back on Face the Nation Leiter indicated the war on Iran would last only until its enriched uranium for making a nuclear bomb was seized.
Won’t that require boots on the ground? Brennan asked.
No, Leiter maintained, because the enriched uranium will instead be seized by Iran’s suppressed minorities, who he identified as Kurds, Balochs and Azeris.
Brennan noted here that President Trump does not want to include the Kurds and make the situation more complex than it is already.
“Well, this isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan,” Leiter said. “Because in this case 80% of the people oppose the regime. They just need to express themselves. That’s what we’re explaining here. This is not a repeat of forever wars. … They’re beginning to move forward. It’s just going to take a little time.”
The 80%’s previous uprising resulted in thousands killed by Iran’s military.
The upshot … Unless Trump somehow manages to declare victory and leave Israel to finish this alone, the chances of US involvement ending in four or five weeks seem to be about as good as Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s tenure as supreme leader lasting 37 years. –Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa